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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 March 22
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ADDS IMPETUS TO ASIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Clean energy alternatives are a crucial hedge against future disruptions in global commodity markets
Russia’s invasion of Ukra ...
Tuesday, 08 March 22
THE HIGH COST OF INDONESIA’S DOWNSTREAM COAL PROJECTS IS UNDERESTIMATED - IEEFA
Three Indonesian ministries have come up with a DME purchase price of US$378/tonne fixed for 20 years compared to IEEFA’s US$601/tonne estima ...
Wednesday, 02 March 22
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The escalating confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to disrupt global order and set the world back a few decades. While count ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS MOVED ON A POSITIVE TRACK - ALLIED
The dry bulk market has moved on a positive track as of the past couple of weeks or so. Following the typical softening in freight conditions durin ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
CHINA'S DAILY OUTPUT OF COAL REBOUNDS TO OVER 12 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
China’s coal output returned to more than 12 million tonnes per day as of Feb. 20, the country’s state planner said on Monday, a level ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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