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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 18 April 22
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL TO RISE DUE TO INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND: INDIAN COAL MINISTRY - PTI
Coal block allocatees have a golden opportunity to augment production as the demand for thermal coal will rise due to an increase in electricity de ...
Tuesday, 05 April 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS RECORD ABOVE $288
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for April in a steep climb from March 2022.
As expected, Russia – Ukraine war dr ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA STATE PLANNER ASKS COAL INDEX PROVIDERS TO RECTIFY IRREGULARITIES - REUTERS
China’s state planner has asked some major coal price index providers to rectify “severe irregularities” it had identified in the ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
IMPORTED COAL PRICES TO JUMP 55% IN APR-JUN, IMPACT INDIAN FIRMS: ICRA - LIVEMINT
Supply disruption owing to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could push the price of imported coal by 45-55% in Q1FY23 compared to the previous quarter, ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT SET FOR MODERATE GROWTH IN 2022 - INDUSTRY BODY - REUTERS
China is expected to see its coal output to grow further in 2022 after hitting a record last year, an industry body forecast on Wednesday, as the c ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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