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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 April 22
CHINA'S APPETITE FOR BAUXITE HITS NEW RECORD AS Q1 IMPORTS JUMP 15.4% Y/Y - BIMCO
Bauxite shipments arriving in China hit new record levels in the first quarter of 2022 and grew at an average annual rate of 12.8% between 2017 and ...
Tuesday, 26 April 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS ARE SHIFTING, THERMAL MORE THAN COKING - REUTERS
India’s coal imports are starting to reflect shifting world trade and pricing dynamics in the wake of Russia’s invasion of neighbouring ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS EXPECT A BRIEF SPIKE IN PRICES ON EU BAN - REUTERS
A European Union embargo on Russian coal imports will push up prices in the short term before alternative supplies become available to steady the c ...
Monday, 18 April 22
FINNISH 'LOOPHOLES' ALLOW IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN COAL AND OIL TO CONTINUE - EURONEWS
Activists in Finland are calling for the government to clamp down faster on state-owned companies that continue to import raw materials from Russia ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GOVT IN DISCUSSION WITH WORLD BANK ON FRAMEWORK FOR COAL MINE CLOSURE - BUSINESS STANDARD
The coal ministry is in discussions with the World Bank for collaboration on the mine closure framework, a government official said on Wednesday.
...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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