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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 30 June 22
INVESTMENT IN GLOBAL COAL SUPPLY CHAIN TO HIT $115 BN IN 2022, LED BY CHINA AND INDIA - BUSINESS LINE
At over $80 billion, China and India are anticipated to make up the bulk of global coal investment in 2022, says IEA.
The investment ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
LNG MARKET REMAINS TIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG market remains tight currently, mainly driven by the US LNG outage from the recent fire in Freeport LNG terminal together with the recent fall ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
CHINA'S NEW PLAN FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ON CONSUMPTION - FITCH RATINGS
China’s focus on consumption penetration for renewable energy development in its recently released 14th five-year plan – 2021 to 2025 & ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
APAC CORPORATE SECTOR OUTLOOKS SHIFT AMID GLOBAL SHOCKS - FITCH RATINGS’
Fitch Ratings’ mid-2022 corporate sector outlook review revealed that the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region saw the largest number of sector outlook ...
Thursday, 16 June 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Picking up from my last insight in March, on the early days of the invasion, it's worth pointing out the way that the fast-paced working enviro ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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