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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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