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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 04 July 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIGHTLY DOWN IN JULY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for July delivery drops 1.52 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Refere ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
CHINESE VICE PREMIER STRESSES CLEAN, EFFICIENT USE OF COAL - XINHUA
Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng has stressed efforts to promote the clean and efficient use of coal, and pursue green, low-carbon and high-quality d ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its g ...
Saturday, 02 July 22
GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL EXPORTS IN 2021 INCREASED BY 4.4% Y-O-Y TO 1147 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
In the full 12 months of 2021, global seaborne coal exports increased by +4.4% y-o-y to 1147 mln tonnes, from 1099 mln tonnes in 2020, according to ...
Friday, 01 July 22
INDIA'S TOP CEMENT MAKER PAYING FOR RUSSIAN COAL IN CHINESE YUAN - REUTERS
India’s biggest cement producer, UltraTech Cement ULTC.NS, is importing a cargo of Russian coal and paying using Chinese yuan, according to a ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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