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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Taking the previous market insight a step further, market sentiment remains bullish regarding the overall ROI of scrubbers, facing tailwinds from a ...
Friday, 08 July 22
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICE BREAKS AGAIN LEVEL US$ 400/TON!, UP AROUND 4% - CNBC INDONESIA
Coal prices shot up again and crossed the level of US$ 400 per ton. On Thursday (7/7/2022) trading, the selling price of August contract closed at ...
Friday, 08 July 22
INDONESIA MULLS MORE FREQUENT SETTING OF CRUDE PALM OIL REFERENCE PRICE - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering setting its crude palm oil (CPO) export reference price every two weeks instead of monthly, a senior trade ministry offici ...
Friday, 08 July 22
BUNKER PRICES EXPECTED TO RECOVER LOST GROUND NEXT WEEK - SERGEY IVANOV, MABUX
Over the Week 27, the world bunker indices showed a sharp decline, primarily due to the fall in oil prices on July 05. The 380 HSFO index fell by 5 ...
Thursday, 07 July 22
NTPC MINES 61% MORE COAL AT 4.22 MN METRIC TONNES IN APRIL-JUNE: PTI
State-owned power giant NTPC on Tuesday said that its coal output grew by 61 per cent to Rs 42.40 lakh metric tonnes in April-June quarter from 26. ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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