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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 19 July 22
SEEING RED? - WOOD MACKENZIE
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Wednesday, 13 July 22
HAVE MINERS MISSED THE BOAT TO INVEST AND GET AHEAD OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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