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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 19 July 22
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FIRMS THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
Firmer sentiment across both basins pushed the Capesize 5TC route average above the $20,000 threshold this week, closing at $24,209. A ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
WHY SHIPPING MIGHT BE ABOUT TO GET A LITTLE BIT SLOWER - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
If shipping is the beating heart of global trade, its pulse is about to get slower.
Faced with uncertainty about which fuels to use in the long ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
GERMANY'S INCREASED COAL, OIL USE WILL BE TEMPORARY, SCHOLZ SAYS - CNBC
Chancellor Olaf Scholz says Germany’s decision to reactivate coal and oil-fired power plants to relieve energy shortages because of the war i ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
INDONESIA REMOVES PALM OIL EXPORT LEVY UNTIL AUG. 31 - REUTERS
Indonesia has scrapped its export levy for all palm oil products until Aug. 31 in a fresh attempt to boost exports and ease high inventories, finan ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE DAILY COAL OUTPUT JUMPS ON PEAK SUMMER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in June rose 6.6 per cent from a month earlier as miners cranked up output ahead of peak summer temperatures, when ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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