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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 March 22
MEMR OF INDONESIA HAS FIXED COAL PRICE AT US$ 90 PER TONNE FOR DOMESTIC INDUSTRIES EXCEPT SMELTER INDUSTRIES; FOR PLN USD 70 IS APPLICABLE
Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Arifin Tasrif has set the selling price of coal for domestic, industrial except metal processing an ...
Monday, 21 March 22
A FORCE MAJEURE TO BE RECKONED WITH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Sanctions cause payment confusion
This dispute in MUR Shipping BV v. RTI Ltd [2022] EWHC 467 (Comm) related to an owner’s purported exercis ...
Monday, 21 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 10.3 PCT IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted fast growth in the first two months of 2022, while coal imports continued to shrink, official data showed.
...
Tuesday, 15 March 22
INDUSTRY VETERANS & ORGANIZATIONS HONOURED WITH THE PRESTIGIOUS SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL AWARDS 2022
Press Release: The 15th edition of the prestigious ShipTek International Conference & Awards 2022 concluded successfully from March 7th - 8th 2 ...
Tuesday, 15 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT GROWS TO STABILIZE MARKET SUPPLY - XINHUA
China’s coal market has seen growth in output since late February amid the country’s efforts to stabilize production and ensure supply, ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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