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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 27 January 22
2022 - A YEAR OF REBALANCING FOR METALS AND MINING - WOOD MACKENZIE
If 2021 was the year of rebound for metals and mining (M&M) commodities, then 2022 is shaping as the year of rebalance, says Wood Mackenzie, a ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While it is logical that most of the S&P reports of the first weeks of the year are linked to very limited activity as reflected in the weekly ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA: DME PROJECT IS ECONOMICALLY VIABLE AS STUDY DEMONSTRATES
The government is encouraging downstream coal processing or increase in coal added value, for example by turning coal into Dimethyl Ether (DME) to ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
COMMODITY PRICES COULD SOAR IF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES - ING
It appears that a number of commodity markets are starting to at least price in some geopolitical risk around the growing tension between Russia an ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA'S COAL BAN SENDS PRICES SOARING, OTHER EXPORTERS FAIL TO STEP UP - REUTERS
Indonesia’s short-lived ban on exporting coal has sent ructions through the seaborne market for the fuel in Asia, with the fallout likely to ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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