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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 21 January 22
CHINA'S POWER TRADING TARIFFS TO RISE IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
Rising trading volume and higher-than-benchmark tariffs in the 2022 bilateral contracts signed between Chinese power generation companies (gencos) ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
CHINESE COAL JUMPS OVER 6% ON PRE-HOLIDAY SUPPLY WORRY - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures soared more than 6% on Wednesday, hitting a level last seen in late November as investors grew concerned over ti ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
VIETNAM: COAL SECTOR SEES POSITIVE PROSPECT IN 2022 - VNA
With many signs of rising demand for coal in various economic sectors in 2022, the Vietnam National Coal – Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomi ...
Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels ...
Sunday, 09 January 22
INDONESIA MINISTER SAYS 'EMERGENCY OVER' ON COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH - REUTERS
Indonesia’s power emergency which has triggered a coal export ban is over but the government will still continue to discuss policies in this ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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