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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL DEMAND TO PEAK IN INDIA BY 2030, WILL BACK UP RENEWABLES: NITI REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will remain India’s mainstay energy source and the country will shape global demand this decade, two reports have said a month after the ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL OUTPUT SEEN BETWEEN 637 MLN-664 MLN T- OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia’s 2022 coal output is estimated at between 637 million to 664 million tonnes based on production plans currently being finalised, s ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
VALE ANNOUNCES THE SALE OF ITS COAL ASSETS
Vale informs that, on this date, it has entered into a binding agreement with Vulcan to sell the Moatize coal mine and the Nacala Logistics Corrido ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDIA: CAPTIVE POWER PRODUCERS URGE GOVT TO ENSURE NORMAL COAL SUPPLIES - PTI
A captive power producers’ association has urged the government for 100 per cent normalisation of coal supply to captive power producers whil ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As an outstanding year for the dry bulk freight market comes to a close, so does a thriving year for the SnP market which can only be compared to 2 ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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