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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 January 22
CHINA COAL FUTURES SURGE ON SUPPLY WORRIES AMID INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures surged by as much as 7.8per cent to kick off 2022 on concerns of supply disruptions after Indonesia, its biggest ...
Wednesday, 05 January 22
INDONESIA WARNS COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH NOT OVER AS CHINA PRICES RALLY - REUTERS
Indonesia has warned that its coal supply situation remains critical, ahead of Wednesday’s (Jan 5) review of its export ban, unnerving global ...
Tuesday, 28 December 21
INDIA'S ADANI NEARS FIRST COAL SHIPMENT FROM SHUNNED AUSTRALIAN MINE - REUTERS
India’s Adani Group ADEL.NS is preparing to ship the first coal cargo from Australia’s most controversial mine, after battling a seven- ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL TO STAY AS MAJOR SOURCE OF ENERGY IN FORESEEABLE FUTURE: JOSHI - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will stay as a major source of energy in the foreseeable future as it is an affordable source of energy with substantial reserve, Parliament w ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
ANNUAL U.S. COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION WILL INCREASE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2014 - EIA
From December 20 through December 30, Today in Energy will feature some of our favorite articles from 2021. Today’s article was originally pu ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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