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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last August was extremely hot in the dry bulk market with rates rising at levels that we have years to witness. The dry bulk index exceeded the 4,0 ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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