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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 August 21
INDIA IMPORTED 17.06 MLN TONNES OF LPG IN 2020; UP 11.5% Y-O-Y
Global LPG trade remained fairly positive in 2020, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19, and surged strongly in the first half of 2021. ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
24th of August 2021, the Baltic Dry Index reached 4,201, a YTD high and the highest since May 2010.
Cape 5TC daily average @ 51,472
...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
COAL PRICE RALLY TO PRESSURE CHINESE POWER GENCOS’ MARGINS FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the pressure on Chinese power generation companies’ (gencos) profit from the recent coal price surge to weaken their cr ...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
TIGHT POWER SUPPLY IN CHINA AMID STRONG DEMAND, HIGH COAL PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
China experienced tight power supply in 1H21 on stronger than expected power demand as economic activity continued to recover, Fitch Ratings says i ...
Monday, 23 August 21
CHINESE COAL PRODUCTION RISES 4.9 PCT IN 1ST 7 MONTHS OF 2021 - NBS
Official figures demonstrated that the Chinese raw coal production surged 4.9 percent annually to 2.26 billion tonnes in the January-July period of ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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