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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 September 21
KOMIPO TO BUY 1.56 MILLION TONS OF 5600 NAR COAL OF AUSTRALIA OR SOUTH AFRICAN ORIGIN FOR 2022 - 2024
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
Wednesday, 01 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the summer season is coming to an end, the dry bulk market continues to rally. The confidence that the outstanding freight market performance ha ...
Monday, 30 August 21
68% OF U.S. COAL FLEET RETIREMENTS SINCE 2011 WERE PLANTS FUELED BY BITUMINOUS COAL - EIA
In 2011, the United States had 317.6 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired electric generation capacity. About 88.7 GW of that capacity was retired in the d ...
Friday, 27 August 21
ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT COAL'S MASSIVE RALLY AND NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK - CNBCTV18
Australia’s thermal coal at Newcastle Port, the benchmark for the vast Asian market, has surged over 100 percent this year to trade above $16 ...
Friday, 27 August 21
THE ECONOMICS OF INDONESIA’S DIESEL POWER PLANT TO GAS CONVERSION PLAN ARE PROBLEMATIC - IEEFA
Deploying new small-scale LNG is an uphill battle for PGN
Indonesian gas is currently in a precarious position, where the government needs to ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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