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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA DROP 98.6% AS RESTRICTIONS BITE - BIMCO
In the first seven months of the year Chinese coal imports from Australia have totalled just 780,000 tonnes as Chinese restrictions on Australian c ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT RESUMES GROWTH IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 0.8 percent year on year to 340 million tonnes last month, official data showed.
The growth rate ...
Wednesday, 15 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the oil price sell off during most of August, partly triggered by oil demand fears amid the delta COVID variant, oil prices have resumed ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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