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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 October 21
EUROPEAN COAL FUTURES CLIMB TO 13-YEAR PEAK - REUTERS
European coal futures rose to a 13-year high and physical thermal coal prices were at record highs as rallying gas prices and strong Asian demand f ...
Tuesday, 05 October 21
CAPESIZE MARKET WAS IN A STEEP CLIMB FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The Capesize market was in a steep climb for most of this week as it reached a pinnacle of $74,786 Wednesday before stalling, regather ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL: AUSTRALIA’S COAL ERA IS OVER - YAHOO!FINANCE
As the fringe of Australian politics strives to pump up the coal industry, facts show that coal production has started its long run decline.
&n ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
SURGING COAL PRICES SPLIT ASIAN BUYERS INTO RICH AND POOR - REUTERS
As seaborne coal in Asia trades at, or near, record highs, there are early signs of demand destruction, especially among price-sensitive buyers suc ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tanker Asset values have surprised to the upside, despite the downward pressure on the freight market. Tanker rates have been hovering close to the ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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