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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 11 October 21
COAL ABANDONMENT IN POWER GENERATION PROMOTED GAS DEMAND GROWTH IN EUROPE - TOP MANAGER: TASS
Accelerated abandonment of coal in power generation and the overall recovery of economic activity facilitated gas demand growth in Europe and led t ...
Saturday, 09 October 21
CHINA POWER CUTS: COAL MINERS ORDERED TO BOOST OUTPUT, SAY REPORTS - BBC
Beijing has reportedly ordered China’s coal mines to boost output as an energy shortage across the country has seen millions of homes and bus ...
Friday, 08 October 21
SEPTEMBER CRUDE OIL TANKER DEMOLISHING HITS 39-MONTHS HIGH AT 1.9M DWT - PETER SAND
Has the lid finally come off for crude oil tanker demolition in 2021? If judged by the 1.9m DWT of capacity that was removed in September, the answ ...
Friday, 08 October 21
COAL SHORTAGE MAY LEAD TO RISE IN STEEL PRICES IN COMING MONTHS: JSPL MD - PTI
Steel prices are expected to increase in the coming months as companies are buying coal at three times the rates a month ago, said a top industry e ...
Wednesday, 06 October 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE: ANOTHER MONTH, ANOTHER RALLY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second and third quarters of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $161.63 Oc ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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