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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 28 September 21
THE MAIDEN EDITION OF DIVE TECHNOLOGY SUMMIT 2021 CONCLUDES SUCCESSFULLY
Press Release: DIVE TECHNOLOGY SUMMIT 2021, a one-day conference on the recent technological advancements in the Industrial Diving industry conclud ...
Monday, 27 September 21
CHINESE COAL FIRMS MEET TO ADDRESS WINTER SUPPLY CHALLENGES - CNBC
Major Chinese coal producers are trying to resolve supply shortages and curb price rises as the country’s winter consumption peak approaches, ...
Saturday, 25 September 21
HIGH STAKES FOR ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK’S AMBITIOUS COAL POWER RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
Implementation challenges could block funding for other equally important high impact clean energy funding strategies
In the lead up ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
LONGER COAL CONTRACTS MAY REIN IN PRICES - ECNS
In China’s coal sector that has been marred recently by price surges, regional authorities and related enterprises should ensure the fuel con ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
BALTIC INDEX HITS 12-YEAR PEAK ON FIRMER VESSELS RATES - REUTERS
The Baltic Exchange’s main dry bulk sea freight index rose for a fourth straight session on Wednesday to a 12-year high, buoyed by higher rat ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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