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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 15 October 21
GLOBAL STEEL DEMAND GROWTH DOWNGRADED FOR 2021 DUE TO CHINA - WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released an update of its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that ste ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
SPIKING COAL PRICES: DON’T BLAME THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Volatility highlights urgency for renewables-based energy solutions
“Energy crisis.” The phrase evokes nearly-forgotten ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 588 MMST IN 2021, UP 53 MMST YOY
U.S. coal production in EIA's forecasts totals 588 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 53 MMst more than in 2020.
According ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
COAL PRICES ARE ROARING BACK AMID A GLOBAL ENERGY CRUNCH - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Soaring coal prices have placed Australia’s mining and energy exports on track to reach a record $349 billion this year evenas the value of t ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA ISN'T THE ONLY HUGE ASIAN ECONOMY WITH A COAL SHORTAGE NOW - CNBC
China is not the only Asian giant grappling with an energy crunch — India is also teetering on the edge of a power crisis.
Mos ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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