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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soare ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
COAL IS 'KING' AS GAS PRICES SOAR, TOTAL CEO SAYS - AND IT’S BACKFIRING ON CLEANER ENERGY GOALS - CNBC
Surging natural gas prices have led to a jump in coal use, with plants in Europe and Asia firing back up as temperatures decline and the world grap ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
VIETNAM'S COAL-FIRED POWER MAY DOUBLE BY 2030 UNDER DRAFT ENERGY PLAN - REUTERS
Vietnam may double the amount of coal-fired electric generation it installs by 2030 under a draft power development plan submitted to the prime min ...
Friday, 15 October 21
AUSTRALIA'S WHITEHAVEN EXPECTS TO BE DEBT-FREE NEXT YEAR AS COAL PRICES SOAR - REUTERS
Australia’s Whitehaven Coal WHC.AX said on Thursday it expects to be debt-free by early 2022, as thermal coal prices surge to record highs on ...
Friday, 15 October 21
WINTER CHILL KEEPS CHINA'S COAL PRICES HIGH, POWER CRUNCH STOKES INFLATION - REUTERS
China coal prices held near record highs on Thursday as cold weather swept into the country’s north and power plants stocked up on the fuel t ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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