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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA COAL HITS RECORD HIGH AMID TIGHT SUPPLIES - REUTERS
China coal prices hit a record high on Tuesday buoyed by a widening power crunch and cold weather despite Beijing’s efforts to bolster supply ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
IMO 2020, Ballast Water Treatment regulations, Green Recycling, GHG emissions, EEXI, CII, ETS, Fit for 55, Carbon price/levy, the Poseidon Principl ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
SPONGE IRON SECTOR MIGHT REPORT NEGATIVE GROWTH DUE TO COAL CRISIS: SIMA - PTI
The domestic sponge iron industry might report a negative growth in the ongoing December quarter “if the shortage of coal is allowed to conti ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
COAL INDIA, THE FALL GUY FOR POWER CRISIS - INDIA EXPRESS
The post-Covid economic recovery has led to a major increase in the demand for power, both in India and globally. In India, coal-based power plants ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity a ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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