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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 25 October 21
A QUESTION OF POSSESSION - THE BALTIC EXCHANGE
Possession and tangibility are closely related concepts long established under English law. Yet a change to these concepts is around the corner. Th ...
Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA VOWS TO SEVERELY PUNISH MARKET VIOLATIONS AMID LOW COAL FUTURES PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic coal futures had plunged for three consecutive trading days after the government vowed to crack down on soaring prices, and China’s ...
Monday, 25 October 21
FARMERS MAY JOIN THE COAL COMMODITY MARKET TO REDUCE RISKS - GLOBAL TIMES
A recent trip to by the Global Times to East China’s Shandong Province to get a glimpse of China’s coal supply chain revealed a surpris ...
Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA COAL PRICES MARK WORST WEEK SINCE MAY ON GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures plunged on Friday and turned in their worst week in five months, following Beijing’s strongest interventio ...
Friday, 22 October 21
THE BIG PICTURE: ENERGY MARKETS - BREAK WAVE ADVISORS
The shipping markets have been pulled further into wild markets of coal and other energy sources. Given how nebulous this sector is, it’s alw ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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