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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI BEEFS UP COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
Major coal producers in north China’s Shanxi Province, a leading coal-producing region of the country, have beefed up production to ensure en ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
ENERGY CRISIS SHOWS COAL IS AN EXPENSIVE AND UNRELIABLE SOURCE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION - IEEFA
Any knee-jerk reaction that urges more investment in coal completely misses the point
India is teetering on the brink of joining a growing glo ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA TO INVESTIGATE ENERGY INDEX PROVIDERS IN BID TO TAME COAL PRICES - REUTERS
China said on Monday it will investigate energy price index providers as it urged coal industry participants to “strictly” meet contrac ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
THERE IS PLENTY OF COAL AND GAS IN THE WORLD BUT A VOLATILE MARKET IS NOBODY'S FRIEND - IEEFA
Gas will be winding its way out of the energy system
Gas prices are continuing to surge around the world. The cost of gas is at unpr ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
AUSTRALIA EXPORTED 51.6 MLN TONNES OF COAL TO INDIA IN FIRST 10 MONTHS, 19% OF ALL AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS; CHINA WAS THE DESTINATION FOR JUST 0.7% - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. In 2021 things started pretty badly, but we are seeing increasing signs of ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
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