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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...
Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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