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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 01 November 21
COAL PRICES HAVE FURTHER ROOM TO DROP: TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner said coal prices have further room to drop on Friday, as the most traded coal futures dropped to below 1,000 yua ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES SEE BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL IN MORE THAN 5 YEARS - REUTERS
China’s coal futures prices saw their biggest fall in more than five years after the powerful state planner said there is still room to adjus ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
G-20 LEADERS PREPARE STATEMENT TO STOP FUNDING FOREIGN COAL PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Leaders of the Group of 20 wealthy economies are preparing to pledge to stop funding foreign coal-fired plants, but are still wrangling over climat ...
Friday, 29 October 21
APAC THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO REMAIN TIGHT AS WINTER LOOMS - FITCH RATINGS
APAC thermal coal prices have surged, hitting historically high levels. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal reached USD228/tonne in mid ...
Thursday, 28 October 21
CANADA BAN ON SHIPPING COAL WOULD EQUAL SCRAPPING AS MANY AS 3 MILLION CARS - IEEFA
Canada ban on shipping coal would equal scrapping as many as 3 million cars
Change in Canadian policy could have major implications ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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