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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 11 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
ASIA-PACIFIC IS HOME TO SOME OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST CARBON-EMITTERS - 2 CHARTS SHOW ITS RELIANCE ON COAL - CNBC
Asia-Pacific is home to some of the world’s largest carbon emitters — and experts say much of global efforts to fight climate change de ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
CHINA DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS MULTI-YEAR PEAK, PRICES EXPECTED TO FALL - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output hit 11.93 million tonnes last week, a multi-year high as more capacity returned to operation, the state planner sai ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA'S COAL MARKET SEES SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner has declared initial success in its efforts to ensure coal supply and stabilize prices, saying that daily coal o ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA THERMAL COAL PRICES RISE AFTER FALLING FOR 10 DAYS - REUTERS
China thermal coal futures rebounded on Wednesday after falling for 10 days on an expected jump in fuel demand to meet heating needs amid forecasts ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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