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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 16 November 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL USE FOR POWER GENERATION SET TO RISE 3% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s coal consumption for power generation is likely to rise by 3.1% next year compared to 2021, the head of the country’s state ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
CHINA'S MONTHLY COAL OUTPUT RISES TO HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2015 - REUTERS
China’s October coal output rose to the highest since at least March 2015, after Beijing approved a raft of coal mine expansions to tame reco ...
Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Dre ...
Friday, 12 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Friday, 12 November 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE TOPS $215 A TON; THE HIGHEST COAL PRICE IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second half of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $215.01 in November 2021 ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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