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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 26 November 21
CHINA FINDS COMPLIANCE PROBLEMS IN COAL PRICE INDEX PROBE - REUTERS
China’s state planner on Wednesday said it had discovered some “noncompliant” behaviour among coal price index providers as it an ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
SE ASIA POWER DEMAND TO RISE AS STATE SUPPORT MITIGATES COVID-19 IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
Electricity demand in south-east Asia is likely to increase in 2021, following slow growth or contraction in 2020, thanks to state support that has ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to glob ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICE DROPS IN MID-NOVEMBER AMID GOVERNMENT’S SWEEPING MEASURES - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s coal prices have dropped significantly in mid-November compared with the beginning of the month, with the price of coking coal and co ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Inflation is the word that has dominated the meetings of foreign leaders and finance ministers in recent weeks, as rising energy costs, supply chai ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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