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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 December 21
SUPPLY OF COAL TO POWER PLANTS IN NOV MORE THAN CONSUMPTION: JOSHI - PTI
The supply of coal to power plants in November is more than the consumption, resulting in rise in stock of dry fuel at power plants, and this trend ...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Essentially, anyone involved in the shipping and commodity markets still struggle with commodity supply issues and skyrocketing prices in the conte ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER SUMMONS COAL PRODUCERS; LONG-TERM PRICING MECHANISM IS ADVISED - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on Monday that they summoned coal producers for a hea ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES PLUNGE AFTER GOVT SIGNALS MORE PRICE REGULATION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures dropped 5.6% on Monday after the state economic planner signaled further regulations for prices of the dirty pow ...
Friday, 26 November 21
AS COAL MARKET STABILIZES, CHINA STEPS UP NATURAL GAS SUPPLY TO MEET WINTER DEMAND - GLOBAL TIMES
The daily supply of natural gas in China has exceeded 1 billion cubic meters (bcm) since November began, up 11 percent year-on-year, data from stat ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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