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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL FIRMS SEE SHARE PRICES SURGE MONDAY, AFTER GOVERNMENT READJUSTS CONTRACT PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Share prices of China’s coal enterprises jumped on Monday on the A-share market following a nationwide adjustment to annual thermal coal pric ...
Monday, 06 December 21
CHINA SETS 2022 ANNUAL THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 700 YUAN/T - MEDIA: REUTERS
China’s top economic planner has proposed to set annual thermal coal prices for 2022 at between 550 yuan and 850 yuan ($86-$133) per tonne, a ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
BUMI RECORDED US$ 666.18 MILLION AS REVENUE IN THE 3RD QUARTER, UP 13.31% YOY
PT Bumi Resources Tbk and its subsidiaries have recorded a surge in revenue in the third quarter of 2021. BUMI has recorded US$ 666.18 million as r ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
CHINA'S COAL CRUNCH IS OVER, BUT PRICES ARE STILL TOO HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal crisis has largely been resolved with gains in both production and stockpiles sufficient to ensure power supplies over winter.
...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
2022 OUTLOOK: INDONESIAN COAL MINING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has a neutral outlook on the Indonesian coal sector for 2022.
Earnings generation should slow down as selling pr ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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