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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL DEMAND TO PEAK IN INDIA BY 2030, WILL BACK UP RENEWABLES: NITI REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will remain India’s mainstay energy source and the country will shape global demand this decade, two reports have said a month after the ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL OUTPUT SEEN BETWEEN 637 MLN-664 MLN T- OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia’s 2022 coal output is estimated at between 637 million to 664 million tonnes based on production plans currently being finalised, s ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
VALE ANNOUNCES THE SALE OF ITS COAL ASSETS
Vale informs that, on this date, it has entered into a binding agreement with Vulcan to sell the Moatize coal mine and the Nacala Logistics Corrido ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDIA: CAPTIVE POWER PRODUCERS URGE GOVT TO ENSURE NORMAL COAL SUPPLIES - PTI
A captive power producers’ association has urged the government for 100 per cent normalisation of coal supply to captive power producers whil ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As an outstanding year for the dry bulk freight market comes to a close, so does a thriving year for the SnP market which can only be compared to 2 ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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