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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 21 January 22
CHINA'S POWER TRADING TARIFFS TO RISE IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
Rising trading volume and higher-than-benchmark tariffs in the 2022 bilateral contracts signed between Chinese power generation companies (gencos) ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
CHINESE COAL JUMPS OVER 6% ON PRE-HOLIDAY SUPPLY WORRY - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures soared more than 6% on Wednesday, hitting a level last seen in late November as investors grew concerned over ti ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
VIETNAM: COAL SECTOR SEES POSITIVE PROSPECT IN 2022 - VNA
With many signs of rising demand for coal in various economic sectors in 2022, the Vietnam National Coal – Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomi ...
Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels ...
Sunday, 09 January 22
INDONESIA MINISTER SAYS 'EMERGENCY OVER' ON COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH - REUTERS
Indonesia’s power emergency which has triggered a coal export ban is over but the government will still continue to discuss policies in this ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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