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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 02 February 22
COAL STORAGE IN CHINA’S POWER PLANTS NEAR RECORD HIGHS - XINHUA
Coal inflows into China’s power plants have picked up, bringing their coal storage to near record highs, the National Development and Reform ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed pr ...
Monday, 31 January 22
HOW INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORT BAN COULD IMPACT INDIA - IEEFA
What does it mean for power generation and energy security?
Not long ago, India faced coal shortages due to a decline in domestic co ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
AIR PRODUCTS' COAL GASIFICATION PROPOSAL TRIGGERS LOOMING POLICY DISPUTES IN INDONESIA - IEEFA
Plan to substitute Indonesia’s LPG imports with dimethyl ether may be hard to realize due to conflicting business interests
In ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
ENDGAME FOR NEW COAL POWER PROJECTS? - IEEFA INDIA
Retired coal units must be replaced only by assets that can provide grid flexibility
Reportedly, an expert committee appointed by th ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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