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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 February 22
EIA ANALYSIS CONSIDERS DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR COAL MARKETS IN INDIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Issues in Focus: Uncertainty in Coal Trade in India and Greater Southeast Asia, we analyze three ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
OIL PRICES: "IT'S GOING TO BE VERY EASY" TO GET TO $100/BARREL, ANALYST SAYS - YAHOO FINANCE
Energy and oil prices have been on fire over the last six months — and expect them to go higher, says one analyst.
“For ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China& ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
FEBRUARY HBA HITS RECORD HIGH IN 2022 ON INDONESIA’S EXPORT BAN IN JANUARY, WORSEN SUPPLY, UKRAINE TENSIONS
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for February in a steep climb from January 2022.
As expected in January the Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
CHINESE COAL MARKS BEST DAY IN 4 MONTHS ON TIGHT SUPPLY, HIGH DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s coal futures on Tuesday recorded their best session since Bejing’s mid-October intervention to cool runaway prices, aided by co ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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