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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 February 22
RENEWABLES ON THE RISE, COAL CONTINUOUSLY FALLING - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Although oil (34.5%) and natural gas (23.7%) were still the most important fuel sources in the EU energy mix in 2020, renewable energy’s shar ...
Thursday, 03 February 22
COAL SHORTAGE NOW AT ALARMING LEVELS, SAY ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS - IANS
With no relief in sight despite coal stocks running critically low and production disruptions looming across the Indian aluminium sector, the Alumi ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
HIGH COKING COAL PRICES PROVIDE GLIMPSE INTO STEELMAKING'S FUTURE - MCKINSEY
Last year was a volatile one in global commodity markets. Demand for coking coal, an essential raw material in the production of steel, was extreme ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
INDONESIA'S RESTRICTIONS ON COMMODITIES RATTLE MARKETS, MORE MOVES LIKELY - REUTERS
In just the first month of this year, Indonesian policymakers have rattled global markets with restrictions on some of its biggest commodities expo ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
CHINA'S TOP COAL PRODUCER FORECASTS 28 PCT PROFIT GROWTH IN 2021 - XINHUA
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, one of the country’s biggest coal producers, said its net profits are expected to jump by 28 percent in ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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