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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 February 22
MAJOR INSTITUTIONS PROVIDED OVER $1.5 TRLN TO COAL SECTOR IN 2019-2021, SAYS NGO GROUP - REUTERS
Financial institutions channelled more than $1.5 trillion into the coal industry in loans and underwriting from January 2019 to November 2021, even ...
Thursday, 17 February 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES TO EASE ON END OF INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-Shanghai/Singapore-14 February 2022: APAC thermal coal prices are likely to come under pressure in the near term due to seasonally we ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
IS ANOTHER COAL SHORTAGE CRISIS LOOMING OVER INDIA? - BUSINESS STANDARD
In December last year, the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) shot off a letter to the Prime Minister claiming that the coal crisis was ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
THERMAL COAL'S RECORD PRICE RUN MAY END UP ITS OWN WORST ENEMY - REUTERS
The price of benchmark Australian thermal coal rose last week to trade near record highs, providing a short-term boost to producers but increasing ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
INDONESIA: COAL EXPORT BAN - SKULD
Indonesia's coal export ban in the light of force majeure and off-hire clauses
In January 2022, Indonesia, the world's biggest exporte ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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