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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 March 22
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ADDS IMPETUS TO ASIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Clean energy alternatives are a crucial hedge against future disruptions in global commodity markets
Russia’s invasion of Ukra ...
Tuesday, 08 March 22
THE HIGH COST OF INDONESIA’S DOWNSTREAM COAL PROJECTS IS UNDERESTIMATED - IEEFA
Three Indonesian ministries have come up with a DME purchase price of US$378/tonne fixed for 20 years compared to IEEFA’s US$601/tonne estima ...
Wednesday, 02 March 22
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The escalating confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to disrupt global order and set the world back a few decades. While count ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS MOVED ON A POSITIVE TRACK - ALLIED
The dry bulk market has moved on a positive track as of the past couple of weeks or so. Following the typical softening in freight conditions durin ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
CHINA'S DAILY OUTPUT OF COAL REBOUNDS TO OVER 12 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
China’s coal output returned to more than 12 million tonnes per day as of Feb. 20, the country’s state planner said on Monday, a level ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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