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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 18 April 22
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL TO RISE DUE TO INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND: INDIAN COAL MINISTRY - PTI
Coal block allocatees have a golden opportunity to augment production as the demand for thermal coal will rise due to an increase in electricity de ...
Tuesday, 05 April 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS RECORD ABOVE $288
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for April in a steep climb from March 2022.
As expected, Russia – Ukraine war dr ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA STATE PLANNER ASKS COAL INDEX PROVIDERS TO RECTIFY IRREGULARITIES - REUTERS
China’s state planner has asked some major coal price index providers to rectify “severe irregularities” it had identified in the ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
IMPORTED COAL PRICES TO JUMP 55% IN APR-JUN, IMPACT INDIAN FIRMS: ICRA - LIVEMINT
Supply disruption owing to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could push the price of imported coal by 45-55% in Q1FY23 compared to the previous quarter, ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT SET FOR MODERATE GROWTH IN 2022 - INDUSTRY BODY - REUTERS
China is expected to see its coal output to grow further in 2022 after hitting a record last year, an industry body forecast on Wednesday, as the c ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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