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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 April 22
CHINA'S APPETITE FOR BAUXITE HITS NEW RECORD AS Q1 IMPORTS JUMP 15.4% Y/Y - BIMCO
Bauxite shipments arriving in China hit new record levels in the first quarter of 2022 and grew at an average annual rate of 12.8% between 2017 and ...
Tuesday, 26 April 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS ARE SHIFTING, THERMAL MORE THAN COKING - REUTERS
India’s coal imports are starting to reflect shifting world trade and pricing dynamics in the wake of Russia’s invasion of neighbouring ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS EXPECT A BRIEF SPIKE IN PRICES ON EU BAN - REUTERS
A European Union embargo on Russian coal imports will push up prices in the short term before alternative supplies become available to steady the c ...
Monday, 18 April 22
FINNISH 'LOOPHOLES' ALLOW IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN COAL AND OIL TO CONTINUE - EURONEWS
Activists in Finland are calling for the government to clamp down faster on state-owned companies that continue to import raw materials from Russia ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GOVT IN DISCUSSION WITH WORLD BANK ON FRAMEWORK FOR COAL MINE CLOSURE - BUSINESS STANDARD
The coal ministry is in discussions with the World Bank for collaboration on the mine closure framework, a government official said on Wednesday.
...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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