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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 11 June 22
AIMTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE AND AWARDS
Press Release: The prestigious AIMTEK International Conference and Awards concluded successfully on June 7th, 2022 at Radisson Blu, Yas Island Abu ...
Thursday, 26 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The newbuilding market activity has been significantly positive from a dry bulk owner perspective during the first half of 2022. Indeed, the contra ...
Wednesday, 18 May 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPPED 4.42% IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for May delivery drops 4.42 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Referen ...
Thursday, 12 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Almost through half of the year, the overall shipping market continues to show signs of healthiness, after plenty of festivities and holidays that ...
Wednesday, 27 April 22
EUROPEAN UNION'S LNG IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
In 2021, the European Union (27) was the third largest seaborne importer of LNG in the world, with a 15.8% share.
It followed Mainla ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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