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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 30 June 22
FINANCIAL GAINS SUPPORT COAL TRANSITION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Support for the shift away from coal dependency continues to mount, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculating that the move would gene ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
WHY ARE LNG SHIPPING STOCKS RESILIENT? - DREWRY
LNG shipping stocks are proving resilient despite uncertainties about growth in global GDP, high inflation and the ongoing geopolitical crisis caus ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SPOT AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL HAS SURGED, BUT CONTRACT PRICE IS KEY - REUTERS
The spot price of Australian thermal coal is higher than that of coking coal, an unprecedented situation that highlights just how the global market ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SHANXI PROVINCE RAISES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT TO 1.3 BILLION TONS TO ENSURE CHINA’S ENERGY SUPPLY - GLOBAL TIMES
North China’s Shanxi Province, a major coal-producing region, recently announced a move to increase its annual coal production output by 107 ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN HIGH- AND LOW-GRADE THERMAL COAL PRICES IN APAC TO NARROW - FITCH RATINGS
Prices between high- and low-grade thermal coal in Asia-Pacific (APAC) have diverged since late March 2022, but Fitch Ratings expects the gap to na ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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