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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 30 June 22
INVESTMENT IN GLOBAL COAL SUPPLY CHAIN TO HIT $115 BN IN 2022, LED BY CHINA AND INDIA - BUSINESS LINE
At over $80 billion, China and India are anticipated to make up the bulk of global coal investment in 2022, says IEA.
The investment ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
LNG MARKET REMAINS TIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG market remains tight currently, mainly driven by the US LNG outage from the recent fire in Freeport LNG terminal together with the recent fall ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
CHINA'S NEW PLAN FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ON CONSUMPTION - FITCH RATINGS
China’s focus on consumption penetration for renewable energy development in its recently released 14th five-year plan – 2021 to 2025 & ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
APAC CORPORATE SECTOR OUTLOOKS SHIFT AMID GLOBAL SHOCKS - FITCH RATINGS’
Fitch Ratings’ mid-2022 corporate sector outlook review revealed that the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region saw the largest number of sector outlook ...
Thursday, 16 June 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Picking up from my last insight in March, on the early days of the invasion, it's worth pointing out the way that the fast-paced working enviro ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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