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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 04 July 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIGHTLY DOWN IN JULY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for July delivery drops 1.52 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Refere ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
CHINESE VICE PREMIER STRESSES CLEAN, EFFICIENT USE OF COAL - XINHUA
Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng has stressed efforts to promote the clean and efficient use of coal, and pursue green, low-carbon and high-quality d ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its g ...
Saturday, 02 July 22
GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL EXPORTS IN 2021 INCREASED BY 4.4% Y-O-Y TO 1147 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
In the full 12 months of 2021, global seaborne coal exports increased by +4.4% y-o-y to 1147 mln tonnes, from 1099 mln tonnes in 2020, according to ...
Friday, 01 July 22
INDIA'S TOP CEMENT MAKER PAYING FOR RUSSIAN COAL IN CHINESE YUAN - REUTERS
India’s biggest cement producer, UltraTech Cement ULTC.NS, is importing a cargo of Russian coal and paying using Chinese yuan, according to a ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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