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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Taking the previous market insight a step further, market sentiment remains bullish regarding the overall ROI of scrubbers, facing tailwinds from a ...
Friday, 08 July 22
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICE BREAKS AGAIN LEVEL US$ 400/TON!, UP AROUND 4% - CNBC INDONESIA
Coal prices shot up again and crossed the level of US$ 400 per ton. On Thursday (7/7/2022) trading, the selling price of August contract closed at ...
Friday, 08 July 22
INDONESIA MULLS MORE FREQUENT SETTING OF CRUDE PALM OIL REFERENCE PRICE - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering setting its crude palm oil (CPO) export reference price every two weeks instead of monthly, a senior trade ministry offici ...
Friday, 08 July 22
BUNKER PRICES EXPECTED TO RECOVER LOST GROUND NEXT WEEK - SERGEY IVANOV, MABUX
Over the Week 27, the world bunker indices showed a sharp decline, primarily due to the fall in oil prices on July 05. The 380 HSFO index fell by 5 ...
Thursday, 07 July 22
NTPC MINES 61% MORE COAL AT 4.22 MN METRIC TONNES IN APRIL-JUNE: PTI
State-owned power giant NTPC on Tuesday said that its coal output grew by 61 per cent to Rs 42.40 lakh metric tonnes in April-June quarter from 26. ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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