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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 19 July 22
SEEING RED? - WOOD MACKENZIE
What a Republican mid-term victory could mean for US energy and climate policy
According to current polling the Republican Party has ...
Thursday, 14 July 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS HIT RECORD HIGH IN JUNE - REUTERS
India's coal imports hit a record high in June despite high global prices, data from three trade sources and Refinitiv ship tracking showed, as ...
Thursday, 14 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS SLUMP AS TRADERS SHUN EXPENSIVE OVERSEAS CARGOES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports fell 33% in June from a year ago, with traders turning down expensive overseas cargoes in favor of domestic ones with ca ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 2.79 MILLION TONS OF LOW TO MEDIUM COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1360k MT of Min.4400 kcal/kg NCV coal and Total 1 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
HAVE MINERS MISSED THE BOAT TO INVEST AND GET AHEAD OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Miners are in rude health, benefiting from economic stimuli, the post-pandemic recovery and associated supply constraints. Initially the Ukraine wa ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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