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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 19 July 22
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FIRMS THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
Firmer sentiment across both basins pushed the Capesize 5TC route average above the $20,000 threshold this week, closing at $24,209. A ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
WHY SHIPPING MIGHT BE ABOUT TO GET A LITTLE BIT SLOWER - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
If shipping is the beating heart of global trade, its pulse is about to get slower.
Faced with uncertainty about which fuels to use in the long ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
GERMANY'S INCREASED COAL, OIL USE WILL BE TEMPORARY, SCHOLZ SAYS - CNBC
Chancellor Olaf Scholz says Germany’s decision to reactivate coal and oil-fired power plants to relieve energy shortages because of the war i ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
INDONESIA REMOVES PALM OIL EXPORT LEVY UNTIL AUG. 31 - REUTERS
Indonesia has scrapped its export levy for all palm oil products until Aug. 31 in a fresh attempt to boost exports and ease high inventories, finan ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE DAILY COAL OUTPUT JUMPS ON PEAK SUMMER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in June rose 6.6 per cent from a month earlier as miners cranked up output ahead of peak summer temperatures, when ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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