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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 July 22
CAP RUSSIA'S OIL PRICE NOW - PROJECT SYNDICATE
Though the price of oil has declined in recent weeks, it is still through the roof, filtering through to gasoline prices, and causing economic and ...
Tuesday, 26 July 22
WILL SOUTH AMERICA’S WINTER DEMAND DRAW LNG CARGOES AWAY FROM EUROPE? - ICIS
South America is now in the middle of its winter demand season. Last year the region increased its share of global LNG imports in winter, with Braz ...
Monday, 25 July 22
GLOBAL 2021 COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
By contrast, mine output was still fractionally below the record set between 2012 and 2014 because older and less efficient coal generators have be ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
THE EU HAS BEEN REDUCING IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN REFINED OIL PRODUCTS SINCE MARCH - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union could now ban the import and transit of fuel oil from Russia around six months ahead of the planned deadline, an EU official and ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
INDONESIA CONSIDERING SCRAPPING DOMESTIC SALES RULE FOR PALM OIL EXPORTS - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering removing a domestic sales requirement for palm oil exports because high inventories of the vegetable oil have been holding ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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